A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
